Speaker
Description
In the early days of the pandemic, there was a lack of information about COVID-19, and there were many variables and trial and error. However, as information about COVID-19 began to accumulate, the government began to analyze various data to create new policies, and began to develop policies based on mathematical modeling based on this accumulated data.
First, mathematical modeling was used to predict the number of total patients and the number of severe patients, and was utilized as basic data for securing medical resources.
Second, based on mathematical modeling, the priority of vaccine recipients was determined, and a proposal was made to minimize the number of deaths.
Third, mathematical modeling was used to implement a cost-effectiveness evaluation of the reduction in the number of patients caused by various means of social distancing.
By referring to this mathematical modeling, the Korean government and infectious disease experts were able to greatly assist in minimizing the number of deaths and maintaining the economic damage to a manageable level even in the midst of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea.
Through this lecture, we would like to discuss how we can use mathematical modeling at every stage of the crisis in the face of new pandemics, based on the Korean experience of COVID-19.(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
- Yoon YK, Lee J, Kim SI, Peck KR. A Systematic Narrative Review of Comprehensive Preparedness Strategies of Healthcare Resources for a Large Resurgence of COVID-19 Nationally, with Local or Regional Epidemics: Present Era and Beyond. J Korean Med Sci. 2020;35(44):e387.
- Kim HY, Oh IH, Lee J, Seon JY, Jeon WH, Park JS, et al. Policy Review and Modeling Analysis of Mitigation Measures for Coronavirus Disease Epidemic Control, Health System, and Disease Burden, South Korea. Emerg Infect Dis. 2021;27(11):2753-60.
- Ko Y, Lee J, Kim Y, Kwon D, Jung E. COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Strategy Using a Heterogenous Transmission Model Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Republic of Korea. International journal of environmental research and public health. 2021;18(12).
- Kim S, Bin Seo Y, Lee J, Kim YS, Jung E. Estimation of optimal antiviral stockpile for a novel influenza pandemic. J Infect Public Health. 2022;15(7):720-5.
- Ko Y, Mendoza VM, Mendoza R, Seo Y, Lee J, Lee J, et al. Multi-Faceted Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic in Korea Considering Omicron Variant: Mathematical Modeling-Based Study. J Korean Med Sci. 2022;37(26):e209.
- Lee J, Mendoza R, Mendoza VMP, Lee J, Seo Y, Jung E. Modelling the effects of social distancing, antiviral therapy, and booster shots on mitigating Omicron spread. Sci Rep. 2023;13(1):6914.
