EKC2023

Modelling and analysis in response to the 2022 MPOX outbreak in the UK

Aug 16, 2023, 1:00 PM

20m

Orion 2

Basic Science [BS1] Impact of COVID-19 on infectious diseases

Speaker

Dr Andre Charlett (UK Health Security Agency)

Description

This talk will provide an overview of the modelling and analysis that was undertaken in response to the global outbreak of MPOX in May 2022. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) convened a modelling consortium comprising of both internal and external modellers and analysts to provide model based analysis to inform questioned posed by the National Incident Coordinating Committee within UKHSA. These questions included nowcasts and forecast estimates, whether MPOX was transmissible prior to symptoms, estimates of spill-over into other groups at risk, determinants of reductions transmission, and vaccine effectiveness. The talk will discuss some of the challenges faced by the consortium, and some of the novel approaches taken to obtain insights required to control this outbreak.

References

1. UK Health Security Agency. Investigation into monkeypox outbreak in England: technical briefing 8. 2022. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-1#part-2-epidemiology-update.
2. UK Health Security Agency. Monkeypox outbreak: epidemiological overview. 13 September 2022. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-epidemiological-overview/monkeypox-outbreak-epidemiological-overview-13-september-2022. (Accessed 16 September 2022.)
3. UK Public Health Agencies. Principles for monkeypox control in the UK: 4 nations consensus statement. 2022. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/principles-for-monkeypox-control-in-the-uk-4-nations-consensus-statement/principles-for-monkeypox-control-in-the-uk-4-nations-consensus-statement#:~:text=In%20the%20UK%2C%20all%20reported,about%20the%20West%20Afr.